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"Economic Information Daily" reporters learned , along with iron ore frenzied speculation , domestic steel mills for the current pricing model questioning voice gradually rose . China Iron and Steel Association Vice Chairman and Secretary-General Zhang Changfu said publicly for the first time in the " 2013 International Conference on Metallurgical minerals " , held on 21 May , the current iron ore market manipulated traces serious, especially the three mines adopted Platts index benchmark pricing model , which collected the sample size is too small not representative , the operation is also a lack of transparency. In this regard , one must resolutely resist , on the other hand , the domestic market is also actively promoting the use of spot pricing mechanism to build their own platform .
Status quo
Platts index was resisted
" Society as a representative of steel , strongly expressed this reasonable request , to boycott Platts index ." Zhang Changfu on the "Economic Information Daily" correspondent said that from the number , the number of samples Platts index of iron only inquiry total of about 6-9% of the proportion of ore imports, but it can be used to determine the prices of most protocols mine , this pricing model itself unreasonable. From the inquiry point of view, Platts index are taken manually inquiry , and the process to develop a lack of transparency , so give hype ore provides a lot of space .
Statistics show that since 2010 , under the strong implementation of the three mines , the continuation of 40 years of long association system collapsed , replaced by the spot market on the basis of quarterly pricing mechanism. Pricing formula in accordance with the three mines , iron ore prices will be determined each quarter in accordance with the previous quarter, the spot price index of the Chinese market .
For this reason, tend to reflect the iron ore price index for iron ore began to rage . It is understood that the international iron ore market has influence in global stock indices have Steel (SBB) the TSI index , Metal Bulletin (MB) of MBIO Index , Platts (Platts) Platts index . Currently , BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto and Vale three mines were selected Platts index .
"This pricing model is difficult to truly represent the real market price ." Zhang Changfu said. He revealed that this year CISA is working to build a more fair and equitable trading system for iron ore , which form a fair, open and transparent pricing mechanism is critical. On the one hand . The state should strengthen the supervision of the iron ore market to prevent speculation in the same time to strengthen antitrust enforcement.
Zhang Changfu also gives domestic iron ore pricing mechanism to build a "road map" , first, North mine as a platform for the domestic steel spot market purchases to more steering platforms. Secondly, the iron ore spot market to enhance the spot market supply and purchase of iron ore supply side to increase the amount invested in the spot market , improve supply, especially in the domestic steel mills purchaser to raise iron ore spot purchases amount . Once again, the spot cash market platform to improve quality of service for both supply and demand open, transparent trading platform built ; through both supply and demand fair trade , found that prices for iron ore spot trading , use this to guide the formation of iron ore prices .
Zhang Changfu said in iron ore , China has been in a weak and passive situation , we have also to pay a high cost , paid a total of more than 3000 billion dollars. So perfect security system is very important iron ore resources .
Reason
Prices tool
" Three mines iron ore pricing model not only promoted the change , it is the iron ore index evolved into a tool for driving prices up ." Huadong Steel , a vice president of the participants told the "Economic Information Daily" reporters .
This reporter has learned , in the run for nearly a year and a half 's time, not only the continuation of the iron ore index "easy going down " myth, and P -type index formula in terms of acquisition to measure its impartiality and objectivity has been questioned .
It is worth noting that, beginning last December iron ore prices round of " boom " , the iron ore price up $ 90 from the lowest point to $ 160 per ton , this round of " non- normal" prices also accused of being a large mines and traders colluded by " a buying and selling " to push up prices . National Development and Reform Commission on March 6 in the evening at the official online publication "The main factor in the short-term iron ore prices skyrocketing ," the article said , in addition to short-term supply and demand due to market changes and other reasons , the existence of man-made factors to pull up . The article said that with the rise in iron ore prices , the three mines and some traders in order to make up for previous losses , there is a delay in delivery, control of shipments and reluctant sellers phenomenon in the market caused a temporary supply of iron ore shortage of illusion.
Assistant General Manager of the shares of Baosteel , Baosteel Group Procurement Center General Manager Zhang Dian wave on the "Economic Information Daily" reporters frankly , compared to imports , the less cash without taking up too much because the cost of capital , so the possibility of a human operator on the great " Although almost all of the iron ore Baosteel now with a long association , particularly small spot , spot purchases are used to adjust and did not participate in the tender , but the tender does affect us , because the price of a long association with the indices to be, and according to Platts index pricing rules , the tender will directly affect the level of transaction price index . " he told reporters.
It is worth noting that a number of steel mills who have said Platts index is indeed opaque , and spot tender to develop a very large impact on its index , the tender prices have great people working space , played by Platts index , "a largely rebutted " the leverage will be reflected in the pricing along with a long association mining in the past. " We are more sympathetic compared under transparent and fair and reasonable third-party platform to discover the true market price ." Chang Tien Bo said.
Reporters learned that, since June 28, 2011 Platts (Platts) announced the successful completion of the overall acquisition of Global Steel Group (SBB) , the iron ore index monopolistic trend began to emerge . There are rumors in the industry , in the acquisition process , Platts likely to get support from the international financial conglomerates , and the relationship between these three mines of financial conglomerates and doubtful .
" It is also based on this situation, the country must establish its own pricing mechanisms ." Zhang Changfu to the "Economic Information Daily" correspondent said. Although the choice of index pricing yet to "voice" , but for domestic steel mills , it very much hope that China can use its own index , because it can get real pricing information , others are no longer being led by the nose .
" BHP Billiton is pushing three iron ore mines in the first indexation choose Platts index of the reason was obvious ." My consulting director , said Xu Xiangchun steel mesh to accept the " Economic Information Daily " reporters .
Opportunity
Opportunity to bring supply and demand the right to speak
"There tends to balance supply and demand of iron ore , iron ore prices into the downstream channel, supporting the high price of iron ore factors exist ." Zhang Changfu on the "Economic Information Daily" correspondent said from the demand, market demand for steel products weakened, reducing the growth rate of steel production . We expect that in the future China's annual steel production growth between 2-3% , while in the case of overcapacity in the steel , steel prices will remain at a low level . Under the conduction costs, ore prices not long to run high . From the supply perspective, the current global supply of iron ore production has increased substantially, significantly higher than the rate of increase of iron ore for steel production growth rate, we expect the 2013 Rio Tinto, BHP Billiton , CVRD and FMG Total new production of four mines about 50 million tons , the new mining enterprises in global production from 60 million to 70 million tons .
Prior to the three mines and iron ore prices have been under strong monopoly " high " compared to changes in supply and demand will undoubtedly bring iron ore pricing mechanism of reconstruction opportunity . Reporters learned from domestic ports at the current port turnover is very low , the price of 160 U.S. dollars per ton from the previous highs to the current $ 130 , and prices continue downward obvious signs .
Goldman Sachs released a report on the 19th , cut 2013 global iron ore price estimates of $ 144 per tonne dropped from the previous estimate of $ 139 . The reason for the Chinese this year, demand will only "moderate" growth. The report also said that despite the short to medium term iron ore prices will be supported because of increased Chinese iron ore companies higher marginal cost production. But in the next two years , iron ore prices will gradually decline , because the supply exceeds the growth rate of demand growth . Goldman Sachs also lowered the price of iron ore in 2014 forecast by 11% to $ 115 per ton , down 9% in 2015 price forecast to $ 80 a tonne .
Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs mining giant Rio Tinto 's rating from " neutral" down to "sell ." This has resulted in several major global mining giant stock prices generally fall. Day , Rio Tinto traded at the London Stock Exchange share prices fell more than 5 percent to 31.07 pounds , the current phase of the stock from mid- February highs this year fell by more than 17 %. CVRD in Sao Paulo exchange-traded stock price fell 3.89 percent to 32.39 reais this year, the stock has fallen nearly 24 %. 20, the world's second largest mining group BHP Billiton Australian Stock Exchange trading in the stock price fell 2.69 percent to 33.62 Australian dollars , the current phase of the stock from mid- February highs this year fell more than 13%.
It is noteworthy , Rio Tinto, BHP Billiton and Vale released the latest earnings report generally shows that due to the rising costs and slowing global economic growth, the mining giant profits have declined recently . The fiscal year in February , Rio Tinto announced net profit fell 59% to $ 5.8 billion . BHP Billiton in the first half of the fiscal year net profit fell 58% to a level of $ 4.22 billion . Vale claimed that its net loss of $ 2.65 billion in the fourth quarter .
" On the one hand is the slowdown in Chinese demand , on the other hand the supply is increasing , a strong position to change mine , China 's largest iron ore demand side as the right to speak naturally enhanced , in this case , steel gradually formed a platform to promote domestic domestic prices are relatively easier . " Xu Xiangchun commented.