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March 18 , the global market is shrouded in Cyprus collective will to impose a " bank tax " in the shadows. European stock markets , Asian stocks fell after another about 1 % and 2 % in the United States , is about to reach a record high of S & P 500 index also stopped the pace of progress , turn down , and ultimately fell 8.60 points to close at 1552.10 points .
March 21 , the Fed 's statement of 800 words and a short one hour Bernanke 's speech was easily play this piece scattered clouds . Standard & Poor's 500 index ended a three-day losing streak of momentum , rose 0.67 percent to close at 1,558.7 points, the highest record from just under 17:00 .
Market performance once again confirms the conclusion: the debt , although it will shake the confidence of the global market , but in fact the U.S. market confidence , " the regulator ."
Even if the Fed statement argument remains the same, even though Bernanke 's speech is still commonplace , the market has always believed that the news from the United States , if not the bad news is good news is good news.
Moreover , Bernanke 's speech is not entirely without " overtones ."
Tough loose
Bernanke on inflation due to the mild attitude has always held , he has been considered the Fed's monetary committee "dove " representative. However, this modest Bernanke , quantitative easing has become in promoting tougher than Shique once again .
20, 2012 14:00 EDT , the Fed statement said it would continue to maintain a monthly $ 85 billion of asset-backed securities purchase limits, and reiterated the unemployment rate did not drop below 6.5% , the inflation rate does not exceed 2.5 % of the time and half an hour later will not end easing , Bernanke held a press conference . The Fed statement and press conference just 30 minutes away , is the Federal Reserve meeting on interest rates of the new " tricks ." To avoid unnecessary Fed statement triggered speculation that Bernanke decided the meeting will elapse between the seats from the Fed statement and press conference of the time from two hours shortened to half an hour.
Even the wording of the Fed statement re old, Bernanke also hope that through his speech to the market some hints .
Easing is still defended Bernanke 's speech opening . Bernanke affirmed the securities purchase plan provided strong support for the economy and increased short-term economic vitality, greater emphasis is still 7.7% in the case of the current unemployment rate , the Fed's quantitative easing can only be carried out in the end . " I've seen improvement in the job market , we must ensure that this is not a temporary job market improves, we will use the model as well as other indicators of the labor market to make a good estimate of the purchased debt level ." Bernanke said. In order to express concerns about the job market , Bernanke also talked about a few days before he even just have a relative unemployment .
" The unemployed , the unemployment rate , initial unemployment rate continued to improve after the data have emerged , we will consider the purchase of assets may make adjustments in before we can not give quantitative easing threshold ." Bernanke said.
Throughout the press conference , the Bernanke mentioned nine times the unemployment rate , the unemployment rate has made emphasis on the market again for the timing of the Fed's quantitative easing has quit clearer guess.
The unemployment rate of 6.5% is the upper limit given by the Federal Reserve , the U.S. unemployment could fall below 6.5 percent when the Fed started QE will naturally since then exit mode. According to the U.S. Labor Department data show that since the unemployment rate in October 2009 reached 10% of the peak, with the support of the Fed's expansionary monetary policy, the U.S. unemployment rate has been at an average monthly rate of 0.062 percentage point decline . "If this rate, then in mid-2014 , the unemployment rate will be reduced to close to 6.5% , if taking into account the economic situation of instability in the unemployment rate appears repeatedly , then early 2015 the U.S. unemployment rate fell to 6.5 should be under % . " Avondale asset management chief investment adviser Scott Krisiloff said .
Before the unemployment rate below the target , the Fed statement and Bernanke speech probably will not release exit lipped .
In the unemployment rate as a measure of quantitative easing when the end of indicators outside , looking relaxed Bernanke also another " excuse " - that is, the global economic downturn . Cyprus ' deposit tax "storm let just a hint of breathing room and sank into the mire of the European recession in Japan for nearly two decades but also to spread the money the Bank of Japan is operating at full capacity , as an important engine of the global economy , the United States is natural to assume responsibility for stabilizing the global financial markets. "Even if the Fed's asset purchase program ends , it will not raise interest rates immediately , ending hike will purchase bonds with a certain interval of time ." Bernanke said.
In an interview with Bloomberg News survey of 31 economists , 24 were considered , between the end of the Fed's purchase of debt and interest rates will remain at least a quarter of the observation period . That is, if everything goes according to expectations, the end of the Fed rate hike debt purchase and will restart at the end of 2014 to early 2015 implementation .
However , Fed Chairman Bernanke 's second term only to January 31, 2014 , the era of the Fed's monetary policy Houbonanke how will continue to be a focus of market concern .
Bernanke trajectory
Press conference on the 20th , when the question goes to the last question , the questions focused on Bernanke's fate . Bernanke said he had to discuss his future with the president. "I talked a little presidential future career plans, but I will not disclose specific information ." Bernanke said. Always willing to show to the outside world Bernanke transparency on this issue to sell off a child .
Outsiders believe that keeping silent on this issue should be the main reason Bernanke and Obama has yet to reach an agreement. As early as the end of 2012 , do not want a third term Bernanke Fed chairman 's message has resigned with U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner news together , and the resulting market volatility . Obama to save the crisis as the two think tanks , if no longer appear in his second term , which will undoubtedly America 's economy is still in the recovery phase formation shocks. After that, Obama has publicly affirmed Bernanke's work and was carried out to retain. However, Bernanke did not give a positive response.
But the answer to another question on Bernanke's re- letting the outside world still have illusions . In the press conference when asked whether they agreed to modify the same as Europe 's tenure as Fed chairman two years time , Bernanke expressed opposition . As Bernanke 's predecessor , Alan Greenspan had to be in this position for 20 years .
However , in fact, regardless of whether the final election Bernanke , the current Fed Governor setting , the Bernanke era at the Fed 's monetary policy will not deviate from the track Bernanke period.
Has a right to decide on interest rate policy of the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee . The committee is composed of 12 members, including seven from the Federal Reserve Board , the other one is the New York Fed chairman , the remaining four places by another 11 regional Fed President turns served . Only seven Reserve Board has basically decided the Fed 's interest rate policy . In these seven individuals who hold dovish attitude on inflation is their common characteristics. Even in the January 2014 term of office is no longer re-election, the identity of Bernanke reserve members will remain in 2020 , while another candidate as successor Ben Bernanke - Members Fed Vice Chairman Janet Yellen 's term also expires in 2024 . The other two members Daniel Talu Luo and Raskin in 2022 and 2016 will not leave the Fed . The other two Mingjie Mi Luo Jiemu where Stein and Powell are just elected in May 2012 , their term of office ended in 2026 . There is also a vacant places belong .
Such Council lineup shows that even longer as Fed chairman Bernanke , he and his colleagues stand together as co- voting , and ultimately to the U.S. currency will not deviate from the track when the chairman Bernanke . And the whole, they have always been doing really : since 2008 the Fed for short-term interest rates against the members of the committee are from the general area .
. " I'm not the only liberal policy makers " in the unemployment rate and economic growth before none of compliance, QE will be full speed ahead , as Bernanke put it all .